Growing Expectations for Bitcoin ETF Approvals
Bloomberg ETF analysts have raised the probability of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot Bitcoin ETF to nearly 90%. This shift in expectations follows the updates made by Ark Invest and 21Shares to their spot Bitcoin ETF proposals, as per the SEC’s request. Simultaneously, the SEC has decided not to appeal the court decision allowing Grayscale to transform its GBTC product into a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
SEC Chooses Not to Appeal Grayscale Decision
The SEC’s choice not to appeal the Grayscale court decision is strengthening expectations that an SEC approval may come sooner if Grayscale concludes the GBTC to spot the Bitcoin conversion case this year. Analysts believe that the SEC’s Division of Trading and Markets finds itself in a corner, pressured by courts and other issuers to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF.
Analysts’ Insights on the Approval Likelihood
Bloomberg‘s senior ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, shared that Invesco Galaxy also updated its spot Bitcoin ETF proposal in response to ARK Invest’s SEC comments. Other applicants are expected to update their documents shortly. Analysts are anticipating the SEC’s decision on the spot BTC ETF by January 10. The recent updates indicate a positive dialogue with the SEC.
Ark Invest added five additional pages to its application concerning risk disclosures, new language, and more context. “This dialogue between the SEC and fund providers, while standard practice for new launches, is a first for spot Bitcoin ETF applications and shows the SEC’s efforts to approve Ark’s proposal.”
Ether ETF Applications and Implications
Grayscale has also applied for an Ether ETF. The probability of an Ether ETF approval is higher. ProShares is launching a Short ETH Strategy ETF for short-term Ethereum futures next week. Trading will commence on October 16, with the ticker symbol SETH.
This development indicates the growing optimism within the cryptocurrency community regarding the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF by the SEC. The cryptocurrency market is closely following these developments, as it recognizes the regulatory impact on the broader adoption of digital assets and the traditional financial market integration. Irrespective of the outcome, the SEC’s decision will be a crucial factor in determining the path of the cryptocurrency market shortly.
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